Monday, October 15, 2007

20 years on...

Tonight sees the 20th anniversary of one of the most devastating and possibly most contentious UK weather events of recent times.

15th/16th October 1987 saw a storm pass across the Midlands, bringing storm force winds to the South and South East of Britain, average wind speeds of 60-85 mph were recorded in many places with gusts reaching over 100 mph.

But of course that is not the real reason why this storm is so contentious. There still is a widespread belief that the Meteorological Office 'got it wrong', with an off-the-cuff remark on a weather broadcast on the 15th, concerning a tropical storm over the Western Atlantic, mis-interpreted subsequently to mean the storm of the 15/16th.

1987 storm links - Wikipedia, Met Office, BBC (On this day)

However, given the paucity of available data to the forecasters that night of the 15th, no automatic floating buoys, no dedicated weather ships, minimal satellite imaging information and so on, I suppose that they got close is something!

I remember that morning, as I sat in the 6th form common room at Malton School that morning before lessons, being amazed at the events further south. Outside the window there it was a sunny crisp autumn day that promised much (probably double lessons of Geography!), and yet in London and the SE, devastation everywhere.

As the Met Office said subsequently "In an ideal world, storms like 1703 and 1987 will never take us by surprise. In the real world, however, we must remember that caprices of the atmosphere may occur at any time."

That's the nature of the atmosphere I'm afraid, we think we know how it works, yet we will never know for certain if we are right, except in hindsight.

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